Coffee is subject to climate change. Our new video is about who will grow coffee, where and how in the future, what it will taste like and whether it will become more expensive.
Last summer I read a book that has shaped my thoughts and actions ever since. It's called "The Good Ancestor" by Roman Krznaric.
In it, Krznaric discusses concepts that can help us think for future generations and thus critically examine our actions.
We know that our decisions have long-term consequences: private, professional, and yes, even when drinking coffee.
Because the coffee tree planted today will face increasingly adverse circumstances in the future. Perhaps it will be drier, or wetter, or cooler, hotter, or there will be new mutations of diseases that will affect the coffee tree.
The effects of climate change influence coffee production, but how and where exactly is not yet foreseeable. So it is not at all certain whether we will still be able to drink coffee in 2050. In short: we will still be drinking coffee in 27 years, but not as we do today.
In the podcast series Coffea Futurica, I talk to guests about future scenarios, how we can better grow, process, roast, trade and prepare coffee.
The coffee of the future
Perhaps the coffee will still taste similar, but what will have happened on the way to our coffee cup will have changed dramatically.
We all help shape the future of coffee.
◉ Through the intention of how we buy coffee
◉ Through the preference of what we like in coffee
◉ Through the idea of what kind of agriculture we want to support
I recently outlined these thoughts in a video and discuss the following points.
The following questions are discussed in detail in the video, here is a brief summary.
Where will the coffee of the future come from?
Brazil, as the world's largest coffee country, will be hit hard by global warming. Certain regions are warming up significantly and drought stress is increasing.
In other regions, a changed climate suddenly opens up new opportunities: in Uruguay or Portugal, the climate will be suitable for coffee cultivation in a few years. The demographic upheavals that accompany this are still incalculable - but they will be clearly noticeable.
Who will grow it?
Small farms, which already have no direct market access, are in debt and know little about the potential of their coffee, will disappear. The financial and psychological burden of planting a product with a long horizon that only yields after three years, in an increasingly unpredictable environment, is too great.
The future belongs to producers who are well connected and flexible, who can adapt their knowledge and the potential of their soil to the circumstances, and who are as strong entrepreneurially as they are sensorially.
What will coffee taste like in the future?
The same and different. The large majority will probably taste similar, because coffee from warmer regions often shows less complexity. And if it gets warmer, there will be more regions that will produce coffee with a mass taste. More special coffees will continue to exist, but demand for them is also rising rapidly, which will make the market more competitive.
Will coffee be more expensive in the future?
Yes, it will probably become gradually more expensive. This has to do with rising living costs, hopefully ever better wages for coffee producers, and competition for labor. In some places, mechanization will increase more than in others, but the industrialization of coffee production is not equally possible everywhere.
So I would argue: if coffee doesn't get more expensive, we have to look at that critically.
Prices have risen everywhere in the last year, so why shouldn't a product that travels halfway around the world also become more expensive?
There will be one segment in the coffee market, in particular, that will grow strongly: the one that has realized that nature is not free. In this segment, coffees will have the price needed to make agriculture sustainable for people and the environment.
What is our role in this? And what can we do?
All of us who drink coffee, all of us who roast, buy and produce? We can all help shape the coffee of the future.
Two simple means are:
1. those who buy directly from roasters have the opportunity to inquire about where the coffee comes from, how it was produced, and whether it is environmentally and socially responsible.
2. those who buy coffee in the supermarket can opt for double-certified coffees (organic and Fairtrade). Perhaps the coffee world will only get a little better as a result, but above all, it won't get worse. And that's a good start.
As a company with the purpose of looking at coffee as a whole, providing impetus and making the world a little better with coffee, the current and future challenges are a driving force for us like never before to help shape the future.
Where there are questions and uncertainties, there are opportunities. We stay on it, look for answers and want to seize these opportunities with all stakeholders in the coffee chain.
More on the topic "Coffee of the Future": Podcast Coffea Futurica
Coffees from our projects, with a focus on regenerative agriculture:
Toca - Espresso, Mexico
here we accompany a newly created cooperative from conventional to organic and regenerative production
Mamy - Espresso, Guinea
the Macenta Beans project works with Canephora producers who do not use synthetic fertilizers and grow coffee in the rainforest
Flhor - Espresso, long coffee, Honduras
18 Conejo are our long-standing partners with a focus on biodynamic coffees. As the first certified organic producer, 18 Conejo is still a pioneer in natural cultivation today
Apas - Espresso, Brazil
In January 2023, the first container of organic-certified Apas coffee set sail. A milestone in our partnership, as organic coffee in Brazil is a rarity.
